Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Fwd: Learn this Secret Housing Stock Signal



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Rude Awakening <rude@agorafinancial.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 at 7:07 AM
Subject: Learn this Secret Housing Stock Signal
To: iammejtm@gmail.com


Why lumber matters
Rude Awakening
August 26, 2014
 
 
Learn this Secret Housing Stock Signal
 
  • Why lumber matters
  • Can homebuilders turn higher?
  • Plus: How to take profits

 
Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg Guenthner
Greg Guenthner
As if enduring one of the most boring trading weeks of the year wasn't enough, lumpy housing data just had to sneak up on us Monday...

New home sales dipped 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 412,000 units, the commerce department reported yesterday. In case you're keeping track, that's the lowest level since March.

So that's it for the housing comeback, right? After this summer's big breakdown, homebuilder stocks are probably cooked.

Or are they?

You probably remember that I've harbored bullish feelings regarding homebuilders since last year. But after breaking through critical support back in July, this sector looked ready to roll over. I even told you to stay away from these stocks as they hit new 2014 lows. After all, I said there was plenty of room for them to drop much lower...

But now I'm starting to see some telling activity in one of the weakest groups of stocks this year. And one leading indicator is now hinting that last month's nasty homebuilder breakdown might actually morph into the biggest fake-out of the year.

All you have to do is look to lumber...

Lumber prices are breaking out in a big way. After cratering in June, lumber prices have gone on a massive (and volatile) tear. They're back from their lows and looking to move even more, potentially taking out the January highs.

Of course, lumber (and lots of it) is the main ingredient when it comes to building a house.


The key here is that lumber and homebuilder stocks usually trade together...

"Lumber looks poised to resume its uptrend," writes John Murphy on his Stockcharts.com blog. "An upside breakout in lumber could be a sign that homebuilders are ready to start playing catch up to the rest of the market."

The action we're seeing in lumber right now makes me think that the big breakdown in the homebuilders was nothing more than a massive fake-out move. If homebuilders can maintain their strength and take out their late June highs over the course of the next several weeks, you could have the opportunity to hop on a powerful new bull trend...
 
 
 
 
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One firm predicts that a single investment in this new underground bank could show you a 500% gain by the end of 2014.

Our investigation has found that Wall Street bankers are already parking their own cash in this new banking system.

Click here to find out how to make this move safe, easy and utterly profitable.
 
 
 
 
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Rude Numbers
Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses

 
2,000 was briefly topped by the S&P 500 yesterday. However, the big index failed to close above the round number...
$101 buys one share of Apple Inc. That's an all-time split-adjusted high, putting the company's market valuation above GE and Walmart combined, according to 24/7 Wall St.
$430 million will be needed to bring the Ebola outbreak under control, according to the World Health Organization...
$1,289 is where you'll find gold futures this morning. The yellow metal is up about $10 to begin the trading day...
1,997 is where you'll find S&P futures today. The market is looking at a green open--but can it close at another all-time high?
 
...
 
Rude Trends
When to Buy... When to Sell

 
"You advise regularly to take profits early and often," writes a curious reader. "Do you have any rules or guidelines on when to take profits and how much of a position?"

They say anyone can buy a stock...

It's true. Just throw some money in a brokerage account and type in three or four random letters. You'll eventually stumble onto a ticker. Hit "buy" and wait. After a few weeks, you might find yourself sitting on some paper gains.

Now comes the tricky part. What to do next?

Yes, anyone can buy a stock. But managing a position--and selling at the right time--is the most difficult task an investor or trader will ever face.

So how do you begin to develop a set of rules to help you master the art of the sell?

First, you have to figure out what your goals are before you buy. Are you trading? If so, how long do you expect to hold the stock? What's the most you're willing to lose on the trade? If all goes as planned, where do you want to take profits?

Once you make these decisions, you must stick to the plan. It's almost impossible to remain unbiased once you're in a position because you want it to move higher. You have expectations (and hope) once your actual money is on the line.

Let's say you buy a $10 stock. You think it can get to $12, so that's your primary target. You note that a support break at $9.50 will trigger your mental stop. Let's also say that the stock quickly moves higher and tops your $12. At this point, you can do one of two things: Sell the stock. Or sell part of your position and let the rest ride.

For my Pro subscribers, I usually recommend selling half of a winning position once it reaches that first price target. Then, we're in a spot where we can let the remaining position run.

Of course, this isn't the one and only correct way to trade. But I find that "taking profits early and often" removes the psychological burden of a full-sized position, frees up capital for new trades, and keeps your head in the game.

What are your best trading strategies? Let me know at rude@agorafinancial.com and we'll keep the conversation going...

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
 
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Ignore At Your Own Peril
Today's Must Read Links

 
 
 
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